A REVIEW OF THE WATAUGA MARKET SINGLE FAMILY HOME MARKET FOR CALENDAR YEAR 2025
2025 has yet again proved to be another interesting year. In some ways the step away from the Covid ‘crazy’ years that continued in 2024 led to a more balanced market in 2025. Yet, there were surprises. In the first 5 months of 2025, less homes sold that have sold since 2012! That was a shocker. Then, in the next 5 months, sales soared! Underlying that was a sharp spike in the number of homes that came on the market. The last two months have set tled down to slow sales, as was markedly true in 2024.
Two patterns stand out: As was true in 2024, basically, it’s no longer possible to purchase a livable home at/under $100K in the Watauga Market. Not even single wide trailers. One home sold under $30K, but it was basically a tear down and being sold for the land.
The second pattern, as was true in 2024, is the proliferation in sales of the over $1 mil homes. In 2025 23% of homes sold at the over $1Mil mark. The large number of sales of building lots well over $100K foretells many more high end homes in the future.
WHAT’S BEEN HAPPENING IN THE WATAUGA HOME MARKET DURING 2025?
For a quick look, here’s a summary:
For an in-depth look, start with the Odds of Selling overview:
This graph shows:
791 homes closed in the Watauga market during 2025
56 homes are currently under contract
295 are currently active in the market
During 2025 392 homes were market rejected [left the market unsold]
Homes are currently selling at a rate of 70.6 homes a month
If no other homes were to come on the market [highly unlikely], a home seller could expect it would take 4 months to sell the home
For a seller, the most crucial number is likely: 55% Odds of Selling. That number re flects the reality that not all homes on the market will sell.
Do keep in mind 55% Odds of Selling reflects ALL homes on the market and is not an accurate prediction of the Odds for any one home.
Compared to 2024, more homes sold in the Watauga Market. 745 sold in 2024. Interestingly, the other numbers are very similar to a year ago:
58 homes under contract
277 homes for sale
368 homes were market rejected
Properties were selling at 66.9 per month
The inventory of homes was 4.5 months out
The Odds of Selling were 55%.
WHAT DO ‘TIME TIL CLOSING’ GRAPHS TELL ABOUT VALUE OF HOMES
The average sales price for all homes in the Watauga market was at $796,611 for 2024. The average sales price for all homes in the Watauga Market is $829,452 for 2026. On the average, homes increased in value $39K during 2026. That’s an increase of 4%.
How Did SALES OF HOMES DIFFER SEASONALLY IN 2025 COMPARED TO SALES IN 2024
2024 was a typical year for sales here. Slower at the beginning and end, spiking in the summer. The drop in sales in November was marked but diAicult to tell if that was because of Helene or perhaps the Presidential election.
However, the low sales carried over into the first 5 months of 2025, sales lower the first 5 months than we’ve seen since 2012! It was not a good harbinger for the year. Then, along came summer with a sharp increase in sales. In the end, 30 more homes sold in 2025 than 2024.
ANOTHER LOOK AT FLOW IN THE WATAUGA MARKET: THE POND
THE CONCEPT IS THAT A REAL ESTATE MARKET IS ANALOGOUS TO A POND AS WITH A POND FILLING WITH WATER SOME HOMES COME ON THE MARKET STAY NEAR THE SURFACE IN THE ACTIVE FLOW OF THE WATER AND QUICKLY EXIT THE MARKET SOLD OTHERS FLOAT DOWN FROM THE ACTIVE FLOW BEING SHOWN BUT NOT RECEIVING OFFERS FINALLY THERE ARE HOMES IN THE STAGNANT MASS LIKE THE MUD IN THE BOTTOM OF A POND PROPERTIES NOT BEING SHOWN
THE SOFTWARE LOOKS AT THE CURRENT MARKET THEN LOOKS BACK TO WHAT HAPPENED IN THE MARKET A YEAR AGO TO PREDICT WHAT MAY HAPPEN IN THE NEXT 3 MONTHS THE IMAGE ABOVE SHOWS
56 HOMES ARE FLOWING UNDER CONTRACT
146 ARE BEING SHOWN BUT AREN’T UNDER CONTRACT THOSE HOMES THAT ARE ACTIVE AND HAVE BEEN ON THE MARKET LESS THAN IT IS CURRENTLY TAKING ON THE AVERAGE FOR HOMES TO GO UNDER CONTRACT AND
159 ARE IN THE STAGNANT MASS THEY ARE ACTIVE AND HAVE BEEN ON THE MARKET LONGER THAN THE CURRENT AVERAGE NUMBER OF DAYS TIL A HOME GOES UNDER CONTRACT
THE GRAPH ALSO PREDICTS THAT 154 HOMES WILL SELL IN THE FIRST 3 MONTHS OF 2026 THE 56 CURRENTLY UNDER CONTRACT PLUS 98 HOMES PREDICTED TO GO UNDER CONTRACT BASED ON SALES PATTERNS THE FIRST THREE MONTHS OF 2023
A NEW FEATURE IS THE SUPPLY AND DEMAND GRAPH THAT INDICATES THE MARKET IS SOLIDLY A BUYERS MARKET
WHAT DOES THE WATAUGA HOME MARKET LOOK LIKE AT THIS TIME
TWO THOUGHTS: After using these same price ranges for homes since 2008, I am thinking these ranges may no longer accurately describe what is happening in the market. Over half the sales are in the two highest price ranges, and that doesn’t convey the amount of information I’d like to know about what’s happening in those price ranges. I’ve hired someone to help me figure it out.
None of these graphs capture the most striking feature of the market in 2025: the continual onslaught of price reductions. A strange facet of our MLS database is: it indicates price reductions but doesn’t give us a way to count them. That is, short of counting them by hand. When I have counted by hand 42% of the homes on the market have had price reductions prior to selling, some multiple reductions. A home market always has a few price reductions. The large number this year is in part due to the very low sales the first 5 months, in retrospect raising the question of whether those sales had been reliable representations of future market value.
Concomitantly, an unusually high spike in the number of homes came on the market. With multiple price reductions due to low showings, homes that previously would have had higher value and would not have been relevant comps [whether newer, larger, more updated finishings, more desired location etc] started competing with homes priced on early year values.
I’m convinced starter homes are up to $400K. A buyer looking to purchase for less is best prepared for a successful if they are willing to do repairs and upgrades subsequent to closing. 28 years ago, when I started in real estate, starter homes were at the $150K mark.
WHAT ABOUT NEW CONTRUCTION
54 new speck homes came on the market in 2025. 20 are currently active. 15 sold. Their prices:
Under $300K = none built
$300K to $500K = 2 built, both sold
$500K to $1000K = 22 built, 6 active, 6 sold, 1 under contract, 9 market rejected
$1000+ = 28 built, 11 active, 8 sold, 1 under contract, 8 market rejected
Sold prices range from $480K [1347 sq ft] to $3,025,000 [5164 sq ft]. Average sold price: $1.2 mil. Average square foot value: $459/sq ft.
As was true last year, the only new housing approaching affordability are the Townhomes at Brookshire. These are free standing townhomes. Most are 1004 sq ft, 2 bedrooms, 2 baths with very nice but not top quality finishings. One of my buyers described them as ‘cookie-cutters.’ ALL exterior maintenance is taken care of by the POA, making these attrac tive for people wanting little worries about yard, roads, lighting etc. These sell around $400/sq ft, i.e., around the $400K value point. It’s an unusual subdivision for the high country.
STYLES of New Contruction
What styles of homes due builders believe are attractive to buyers?
All but 6 of the homes are described as mountain style, always the most frequent style, new or existing construction. Most have multiple style designations, a mixture of:
Traditional 2
Log 2
Contemporary 23
Cottage 5
Adirondack 2
Craftsman 4
Farmhouse 1
Ranch 1
WHAT STYLES OF HOMES ARE BUYERS CHOOSING
My disclaimer about styles of homes:
Our MLS allows us to choose from 24 styles of homes, when entering a new home listing. I’ve been with this MLS 28 years and have never heard any discussion of what is meant/intended by the style choice we make. Opinions among realtors as to which style is right for a home obviously very quite a bit. At least, I often look at a listing and can not fathom why the realtor chose that style for that home. Having said that, there is some value in looking in a very general way at what style buyers are choosing. I’ve grouped the styles together, and omitted several styles not identified on any of the sold homes [Mediterranean and Tudor, for instance].
Three categories to note: Adirondack, Timber frame, and Log. When a buy tells me s/he wants a log cabin, I include all three categories in the search. If I were to simply look at ‘log’ cabins, I’d likely be overlooking Adirondack and Timber frame designated homes that, to me, fall under a general cate gory of log cabins.
I will also look at ‘Mountain’ style homes. To me, mountain style homes are stick built homes that in many other way look like log cabins. They are usually less expensive than log cabins. For that reason, buyers often start out with log cabins in mind, but decide to buy a mountain style home. In fact, mountain style is so very popular here that I am sometimes flabbergasted at what other realtors consider mountain style. For instance, 1970’s brick ranches are sometimes termed mountain style, likely because the interior has been updated with a lot of wood and other ‘log cabin’ design features.
Similarly, I see no consistency in realtor’s discrimination between these styles: Cape Cod, Cottage, Craftsman, Farmhouse, Traditional.
Manufactured 18
Modular 17
A-frame 20
Log, Adirondack, Timberframe 121
Storybook Cottage 8
Split level/split foyer 14
Traditional 132
Tudor 1
Victorian 0
Round 9
Ranch 69
Mountain 450
Farmhouse 25
Cape Cod/Cottage/Craftsman 89
WHAT AREAS IN WATAUGA COUNTY ARE MOST IN DEMAND FOR HOME SALES
ASV = average sales value
THE WATAUGA HOME MARKET FINAL THOUGHTS
With the lower initial sales and high subsequent sales, plus the spike of homes on the market, it’s been rather a roller-coaster of a year. For sellers, the question of when they will no longer be leaving money on the table versus how much are they ready to sell that’s been a huge question.
It’s been equally diAicult for buyers. Knowing virtually no homes are selling for full asking price has made it diAicult to know how low they might be able to go on an oAer without insulting the sellers, and making subsequent negotiations diAicult. There’s also been a temptation to question whether they might be able to buy more of a home than they had hoped for. Raising expectations risks raising disappointment.
Unfortunately, many families continue to deal with the aftermath of Helene. It’s heartening to see local people and organizations continue to reach out and help others.
I wish I could see a wedge of hope for so-called affordable housing. New construction continues to be homes well over the $500K range. Or, more apartments/housing primarily for students.
A market is always transitioning. I hope, as I will be, you’ll find it interesting to see what 2026 brings us.
Please know I’m always glad to address your questions or concerns about the market.